As we know by now, it is not the national polls that matter (although they are important trend indicators), but state polls that determine the outcome of the electoral college. Obama could be registering 60% to 40% nationally (theoretically), but if he's getting 100% support in California, Washington, New York, Massachusetts, etc, it is still hypothetically possible to lose the electoral college (just an illustrative example that national polls aren't necessarily king).
Funny things are starting to happen. States that McCain should have absolutely solidified like North Dakota, Arizona, Georgia, and Arizona are becoming bonafide swing states with Obama trailing by exactly 3-4% in all of these states. But states that McCain was trailing in recently that he needed to solidify have been tightening, like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina. Indiana and Missouri have actually switched back into McCain's column.
With all these polls, keep the following in mind:
In 2004, President Bush was trailing 13-17 points behind John Kerry in Pennsylvania right before the election. President Bush lost Pennsylvania by roughly 2 points. Today, John McCain trails by only 7.5% in Pennsylvania, after being behind about 10-12% early last week. Remember that Obama was also ahead in the Pennsylvania primary polls, and absolutely tanked in the primary outcome.
John McCain is the "safe candidate", especially in backwater states in places like Western Pennsylvania. And 1 in 7 voters are still undecided. This is the reason why John McCain's attacks on Ayers and "socialism", and GOP PAC's attacks on Resko, Wright, and Khalidi are not totally in vain. They solidify doubts in undecided voters who will view John McCain as the safe candidate: the white naval hero who has the bipartisan record. To illustrate, it was reported in Texas that 23% still incorrectly thought that Obama is Muslim. While I don't think that's specifically the case with these undecided voters, people will often vote for the candidate that they have the least questions and doubts about in the voting booth.
Also, these polling outfits take into account heavy turnout by African-American and youth voters. While African-Americans have been coming out en-masse, the youth vote this year is a little more dubious. Also, these polling outfits have not taken into account increased turnout among Republican voters, which if speaking to any Republican I know has been any kind of anecdotal indication, Republicans and many moderates will be out full force mobilized against Obama.
I've been looking at these polls, and a lot of them just don't seem right. For instance, California is a state far more prone to success for McCain than Bush, and yet the numbers are showing 57%-33% in favor of Obama. While it's true California is not that heavily polled, I can promise you that those numbers are inaccurate, especially when Bush has lost California in numbers like 57-43 and 55-45. If California is absolutely incorrect from an outfit like RCP/Yahoo Political dashboard, what does it say about the other polls in undoubtedly the most accurate polling outfit which averages all the other major polls.
And as a verbatim mention from my other note:
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=33243837333&id=1219649&index=0
Possible Reasons for Polling Error:
Voters who are more enthusiastic about their candidate tend to respond to pollsters. More often than not, that candidate would be Barack Obama, perhaps making him overrepresented in the sample.
The Bradley Effect: People don't want to tell the pollster they're voting McCain or they put themselves in the undecided category for fear of seeming racist. This intimidation effect seems plausible, as I don't feel terribly comfortable going around Berkeley toting my McCain/Palin pin (but I do), but will be very comfortable toting McCain/Palin in the ballot box.
Safe Candidate Syndrome: People are not afraid to go with the more controversial and less safe choice (if their a moderate swing voter) when chatting with a pollster or doing some online survey. However, there's a certain finality and seriousness of the ballot box that makes people re-examine their concerns and fears and vote with the "safe" candidate
The Numbers
Taking into account how grossly wrong all these polls could be from the factors I've listed above, look at the current swing state percentages from RCP/Yahoo Political Dashboard, keeping in mind McCain can afford to lose a couple of these states:
Missouri: 48.3%/47.7% (McCain/Obama)
Indiana: 47.3%/46.8% (McCain/Obama)
North Carolina: 48.3%/47.0% (Obama/McCain)
Florida: 49.8%/45.7% (Obama/McCain)
Ohio: 49.2%/43.6% (Obama/McCain)
Virginia: 51.0%/45.0% (Obama/McCain)
Pennsylvania: 51.2%/43.7% (Obama/McCain)
Nevada: 50.5%/44.0% (Obama/McCain)
Colorado: 51.5%/45.3% (Obama/McCain)
New Mexico: 50.3%/43.0% (Obama/McCain)
Keep in mind the margins in these states are all below 7.5%.
While I definitely don't think McCain has an equal shot at winning, and he's certainly on the defensive with an uphill battle, I'm here to say that for anybody that thinks Obama definitely has this in the bag might just be a little too hasty. McCain has a chance here, and if he had no shot, Vegas wouldn't be riding 84-16 on Obama. They'd be riding 99-1. McCain has always been the underdog, and he's always come back from behind. They declared him dead in the primaries, and here he is today running strong against a major Democratic tide. Never count out John McCain.
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