by Justin La Grange
I will write an endorsement note soon; not that it will be any surprise, but I just wanted to articulate why I'm endorsing who I am endorsing so I'm not further accused of being any of the following:
a. racist
b. stupid
c. devoid of hope
d. all of the above
At this point, October 22, Obama leads by slight margins in a lot of key states that McCain needs to pick up, according to RCP/Yahoo Political Dashboard (where you can find all this data). These are Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina. And when I say slight margins, I really mean slight margins like 1-3% in all of these, within the margin of error. With two weeks to go, McCain gaining momentum, and growing worries of the Bradley Effect and polling error taking place in mid to high single digits on final poll outcomes, it is now looking likely that those states could easily and likely go to John McCain. When you have margins like this, I anticipate that these states, driven by the propensity of the undecideds to swing to the non-controversial candidate, will go to the "safe" John McCain.
Current Polling In FL, NC, MO, and OH:
Florida (27EV): Obama 48%/McCain 46.5%
North Carolina (15EV): Obama 49.2%/McCain 47.2%
Missouri (11EV): Obama 48%/McCain 45.3%
Ohio (20EV): Obama 48.3%/McCain 45.8%
Okay, that assumption tallies to 247 electoral votes for McCain and 291 votes for Obama. McCain still needs 22-23 electoral votes from somewhere. Below are some of the options.
Nevada (5 Electoral Votes)
Obama is leading McCain 49.3% to 46% in Nevada, which factoring in statistical error could make Nevada even. I don't think McCain is trending as well in the west as he is in the East Coast states I've listed above which is why I haven't given it to him as I have FL, NC, OH, and MO. However, when the polls start tightening up near the end of the race and given the factors I've listed for tightening above, I think McCain is in a very comfortable position to possibly win Nevada.
Pennsylvania (21 Electoral votes)
McCain is still campaigning very hard in Pennsylvania despite high single digit to low double digit trailing in the polls. You would think that this seems very odd as McCain has near abandoned states like Michigan and Iowa where he trails by a similar margin. Interestingly enough, Pennsylvania is a major anomaly, with pollsters and campaigns on both sides admitting that the margin in their internal polling is significantly tighter than national polling. In addition, Pennsylvania has a history of dramatic poll shifts in the final days, and the final results tend to favor Republican candidates heavily, albeit the polls had the Democrats at twenty point leads in those races (for example; so they ended up winning by narrow margins). Obama was absolutely trounced in Pennsylvania primaries by Hillary Clinton, likely by more socially conservative Democrats who saw right through his covering up of those Chicago and San Francisco liberal values. In that trouncing, Clinton saw a larger margin of victory than the polls had been predicting.
Pennsylvania is a state that stretches into the midwest and has a very large contingency of Republicans in Western Pennsylvania as well as socially moderate/generally moderate suburban voters all over Pennsylvania - exactly the kind of voter that caters to McCain (less so than President Bush, who lost the state by a very narrow margin). Rep. John Murtha also called Western Pennsylvania "very racist", which can only work the "Bradley Effect" in McCain's favor.
New Hampshire (4 Electoral Votes)
New Hampshire is a very libertarian state, and McCain had a large fan base there dating back from 2000 in which he called religious leaders backing George W. Bush "agents of intolerance". Despite a roughly 9% trail in the polls (52-BO/43-JMC), this is a state that was tied for McCain just a few weeks ago and could easily tie again with national shifts trending towards McCain. Keep in mind that New Hampshire is not a bonafide East Coast liberal state, much like Pennsylvania. Incidentally, McCain has been campaigning quite amply in New Hampshire as of late.
Virginia (13 Electoral Votes)
McCain is trailing by 7 points (51.5-BO/44.5-JMC). Again, national swings and polling error can put this state further into play. Virginia is also a traditionally Republican state, although it does have lots of blacks coming in full force for Obama as well as a lot of folks moving from DC into Northern Virginia. However, the 2004 election underrepresented Bush's actual support by a decent margin in the polls, meaning that it's possible such a thing could happen here.
Colorado (9 Electoral Votes)
Obama is currently leading McCain 50.4% to 45% in this traditionally Republican state. Again, national swings and polling error can put Colorado into play come November 4th. Somehow, I'm not terribly bullish on Colorado, but if McCain can continue to tighten it up a little, it may be possible to pull off a win.
Getting to 270
Making the assumption that McCain pulls off the aforementioned 247 EV's in OH, FL, MO, and NC, let's assemble some likely scenarios to 270.
247 + 21 PA + 1 in Maine = 269 tie
247 + 21 PA + 4 NH = 272 win
247 + 21 PA + 5 NV = 273 win
247 + 21 PA + 9 CO = 277 win
247 + 13 VA + 9 CO = 269 tie
247 + 13 VA + 21PA = 281 win
247 + 13 VA + 5 NV + 9 CO = 274 win
247 + 13 VA + 5 NV + 4 NH = 269 tie
As you can see, the road to the White House for John McCain lies in winning either Pennsylvania or Virginia, and then peeling off a small bit of something else to tip it over.
Reasons for Polling Error:
Voters who are more enthusiastic about their candidate tend to respond to pollsters. More often than not, that candidate would be Barack Obama, perhaps making him overrepresented in the sample.
The Bradley Effect: People don't want to tell the pollster they're voting McCain or they put themselves in the undecided category for fear of seeming racist. This intimidation effect seems plausible, as I don't feel terribly comfortable going around Berkeley toting my McCain/Palin pin (but I do), but will be very comfortable toting McCain/Palin in the ballot box.
Safe Candidate Syndrome: People are not afraid to go with the more controversial and less safe choice (if their a moderate swing voter) when chatting with a pollster or doing some online survey. However, there's a certain finality and seriousness of the ballot box that makes people re-examine their concerns and fears and vote with the "safe" candidate
References:
WSJ: Are the polls accurate?:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122463210033356561.html?mod=djemEditorialPage
News Outlets Sweat Over Exit Poll Accuracy:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081021/pl_politico/14778
BBC: Will Closet Racism Derail Obama:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7675551.stm
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